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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 86

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 3-C.Waitman punts 60 yards to SEA 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Horton to SEA 48 for 22 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 86, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model