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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 33

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (23-T.Amos).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.21 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model