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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 50

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to CHI 10, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.24 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model