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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 3-C.Waitman punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.13 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP