Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 70

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(2:08) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to GB 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-K.Nixon to GB 24 for 3 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.06 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model