Value Picks — Week 2

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

TB @ HOU Disagrees with the line

Model: TB 66.0% Line: HOU 57.3% 23.3-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ MIN Disagrees with the line

Model: ATL 56.2% Line: MIN 60.2% 16.4-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ MIA

Model: MIA 68.4% Line: MIA 54.4% 14.0-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ DET

Model: DET 75.8% Line: DET 67.2% 8.6-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ LV

Model: LAC 51.6% Line: LAC 60.2% 8.6-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ CIN

Model: CIN 67.4% Line: CIN 60.2% 7.2-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ ARI

Model: ARI 63.1% Line: ARI 69.8% 6.7-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ PIT

Model: PIT 54.1% Line: PIT 60.2% 6.1-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ DAL

Model: DAL 68.9% Line: DAL 63.1% 5.8-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ BAL

Model: BAL 87.8% Line: BAL 82.3% 5.5-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ IND

Model: DEN 52.3% Line: DEN 57.3% 5.0-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ GB

Model: GB 64.3% Line: GB 60.2% 4.1-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ KC

Model: PHI 58.1% Line: PHI 54.4% 3.7-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ NYJ

Model: BUF 64.0% Line: BUF 67.2% 3.2-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ NO

Model: SF 56.3% Line: SF 58.8% 2.5-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ TEN

Model: LA 67.3% Line: LA 65.8% 1.5-pt gap vs. the line