Value Picks — Week 2

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

TB @ HOU Disagrees with the line

Model: TB 64.2% Line: HOU 57.3% 21.5-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ MIN Disagrees with the line

Model: ATL 55.0% Line: MIN 60.2% 15.2-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ ARI

Model: ARI 59.8% Line: ARI 69.8% 10.0-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ GB

Model: GB 67.4% Line: GB 60.2% 7.2-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ MIA

Model: MIA 61.2% Line: MIA 54.4% 6.8-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ DET

Model: DET 73.5% Line: DET 67.2% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ TEN

Model: LA 71.3% Line: LA 65.8% 5.5-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ BAL

Model: BAL 86.9% Line: BAL 82.3% 4.6-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ KC

Model: PHI 58.2% Line: PHI 54.4% 3.8-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ DAL

Model: DAL 66.8% Line: DAL 63.1% 3.7-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ CIN

Model: CIN 63.6% Line: CIN 60.2% 3.4-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ LV

Model: LAC 56.9% Line: LAC 60.2% 3.3-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ PIT

Model: PIT 57.2% Line: PIT 60.2% 3.0-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ NO

Model: SF 61.2% Line: SF 58.8% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ IND

Model: DEN 55.2% Line: DEN 57.3% 2.1-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ NYJ

Model: BUF 66.1% Line: BUF 67.2% 1.1-pt gap vs. the line