Value Picks — Week 6

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

DET @ KC Disagrees with the line

Model: DET 54.5% Line: KC 57.3% 11.8-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ IND

Model: IND 62.3% Line: IND 73.6% 11.3-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ MIA Disagrees with the line

Model: MIA 50.3% Line: LAC 60.2% 10.5-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ BAL

Model: LA 61.9% Line: LA 69.8% 7.9-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ JAX Disagrees with the line

Model: JAX 52.8% Line: SEA 54.4% 7.2-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ ATL

Model: BUF 67.2% Line: BUF 60.2% 7.0-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ PIT

Model: PIT 72.1% Line: PIT 65.8% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ CAR

Model: DAL 54.5% Line: DAL 58.8% 4.3-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ GB

Model: GB 80.7% Line: GB 85.0% 4.3-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ NYG

Model: PHI 74.0% Line: PHI 69.8% 4.2-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ LV

Model: LV 63.9% Line: LV 60.2% 3.7-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ WAS

Model: WAS 69.1% Line: WAS 65.8% 3.3-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ NO

Model: NE 63.1% Line: NE 60.2% 2.9-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ TB

Model: TB 62.6% Line: TB 60.2% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ NYJ

Model: DEN 72.5% Line: DEN 71.1% 1.4-pt gap vs. the line