Value Picks — Week 6

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

LAC @ MIA Disagrees with the line

Model: MIA 54.4% Line: LAC 60.2% 14.6-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ KC Disagrees with the line

Model: DET 56.0% Line: KC 57.3% 13.3-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ BAL

Model: LA 57.1% Line: LA 69.8% 12.7-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ JAX Disagrees with the line

Model: JAX 57.1% Line: SEA 54.4% 11.5-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ IND

Model: IND 62.6% Line: IND 73.6% 11.0-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ LV

Model: LV 70.6% Line: LV 60.2% 10.4-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ CAR

Model: DAL 50.7% Line: DAL 58.8% 8.1-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ PIT

Model: PIT 73.0% Line: PIT 65.8% 7.2-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ TB

Model: TB 67.1% Line: TB 60.2% 6.9-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ GB

Model: GB 81.0% Line: GB 85.0% 4.0-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ NYJ

Model: DEN 68.7% Line: DEN 71.1% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ NO

Model: NE 61.8% Line: NE 60.2% 1.6-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ NYG

Model: PHI 71.1% Line: PHI 69.8% 1.3-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ ATL

Model: BUF 59.3% Line: BUF 60.2% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ WAS

Model: WAS 66.1% Line: WAS 65.8% 0.3-pt gap vs. the line