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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

SF
32.9%
TB
67.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): +0.239 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF defense: +0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • SF on 3 more days rest than TB

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
TB 26
Projected margin: TB by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SF

Kevin Givens DT Out Pectoral
Yetur Gross-Matos DE Out Knee
Brock Purdy QB Out Toe
Ricky Pearsall WR Out Knee
Jordan Watkins WR Out Calf
Jauan Jennings WR Questionable Ankle
Mac Jones QB Questionable Knee
Kalia Davis DT Questionable Hand
Malik Mustapha S Questionable Knee
Upton Stout CB Questionable Ankle
Alfred Collins DT Questionable Knee

TB

Mike Evans WR Out Hamstring
Chris Godwin Jr. WR Out Fibula
Zyon McCollum CB Out Thumb
Bucky Irving RB Out Foot
Josh Williams RB Out Concussion
Benjamin Morrison CB Out Hamstring
Christian Izien S Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 19
–
TB 30

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:58 TD TB (9:58) 1-R.White up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 07:58 FG SF (7:58) 18-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 3 – TB 7
  • Q2 10:22 TD SF (10:22) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – TB 7
  • Q2 05:16 TD TB (5:16) 44-S.Tucker left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – TB 13
  • Q2 02:09 FG SF (2:09) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 13 – TB 14
  • Q2 00:50 TD TB (:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 19-K.Johnson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-20-U.Stout, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. SF 13 – TB 20
  • Q2 00:06 FG SF (:06) 18-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 16 – TB 20
  • Q3 07:30 FG SF (7:30) 18-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 19 – TB 20
  • Q3 02:49 TD TB (2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – TB 26
  • Q4 02:00 FG TB (2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. SF 19 – TB 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (12:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to SF 16, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 70%

    (7:58) 18-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 17 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to SF 2, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-S.Moore to SF 14 for 12 yards (32-J.Hayes).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:42) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to TB 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to SF 3, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-S.Moore to SF 16 for 13 yards (81-R.Miller).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 65%

    (2:09) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (7:30) 18-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 76%

    (8:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 72%

    (5:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 14. 35-J.Dean to TB 20 for 6 yards (88-J.Tonges). PENALTY on SF-71-T.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 20.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 83%

    (2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling pushed ob at SF 41 for 3 yards (25-J.Parrish).