Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(6:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to SF 2, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-S.Moore to SF 14 for 12 yards (32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.23 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model