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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – San Francisco 49ers 19

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP