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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 36

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.83 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP