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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 18-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP