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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 18-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.64 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model