4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

CLE
27.0%
PIT
73.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.238 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • PIT on 7 more days rest than CLE
  • QB edge to PIT: Aaron Rodgers (PIT) +0.001 vs Dillon Gabriel (CLE) -0.065 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
PIT 25
Projected margin: PIT by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CLE

Mike Hall Jr. DT Out Knee

PIT

Calvin Austin III WR Out Shoulder
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 9
–
PIT 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:59 FG PIT (10:59) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. CLE 0 – PIT 3
  • Q2 11:06 FG PIT (11:06) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. CLE 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 03:43 FG PIT (3:43) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. CLE 0 – PIT 9
  • Q2 00:03 FG CLE (:03) 25-A.Szmyt 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – PIT 9
  • Q3 07:54 TD PIT (7:54) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-Co.Heyward for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – PIT 15
  • Q3 04:13 FG CLE (4:13) 25-A.Szmyt 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 6 – PIT 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 4-D.Metcalf for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – PIT 22
  • Q4 09:33 FG CLE (9:33) 25-A.Szmyt 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 9 – PIT 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 85%

    (10:59) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 19 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (8:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 85-K.Williams to CLE 41 for 47 yards (5-R.Jenkins). PENALTY on PIT-40-J.Peppers, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:02) 3-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 21 yards to PIT 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 75%

    (11:06) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to PIT 14, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 85-K.Williams to PIT 21 for 7 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 79%

    (3:43) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to PIT 6, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 85-K.Williams to PIT 21 for 15 yards (5-R.Jenkins; 28-T.Avery).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 69%

    (4:13) 25-A.Szmyt 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%

    (13:47) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 16-I.Bond to PIT 38 for 7 yards (26-B.Echols). PIT-26-B.Echols was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 79%

    (11:59) 56-L.Wypler and 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to PIT 24 for 6 yards (24-J.Porter; 25-D.Elliott).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 96%

    (9:33) 25-A.Szmyt 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:19) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 16-I.Bond pushed ob at CLE 25 for 9 yards (55-C.Holcomb). PENALTY on PIT-15-B.Skowronek, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 25.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Jeudy [96-D.Ekuale].

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 66%

    (3:44) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (1:27) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete short middle to 44-H.Fannin.