4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.53 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model