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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 16-I.Bond pushed ob at CLE 25 for 9 yards (55-C.Holcomb). PENALTY on PIT-15-B.Skowronek, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.57 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP