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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 14

Cleveland Browns 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete short middle to 44-H.Fannin.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP