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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.86 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.96 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model