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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to PIT 14, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 85-K.Williams to PIT 21 for 7 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model