4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 26

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model