Value Picks — Week 16

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

MIN @ NYG Disagrees with the line

Model: NYG 68.0% Line: MIN 57.3% 25.3-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ CAR Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 56.4% Line: TB 58.8% 15.2-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ NO

Model: NO 59.3% Line: NO 68.5% 9.2-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ BAL

Model: BAL 51.0% Line: BAL 60.2% 9.2-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ CHI Disagrees with the line

Model: GB 53.7% Line: CHI 54.4% 8.1-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ ARI

Model: ATL 50.5% Line: ATL 57.3% 6.8-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ IND

Model: SF 56.6% Line: SF 63.1% 6.5-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ DAL

Model: DAL 60.8% Line: DAL 54.4% 6.4-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ MIA

Model: CIN 53.9% Line: CIN 60.2% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ TEN

Model: KC 65.7% Line: KC 60.2% 5.5-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ WAS

Model: PHI 64.5% Line: PHI 69.8% 5.3-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ CLE

Model: BUF 73.0% Line: BUF 78.2% 5.2-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ DET

Model: DET 66.8% Line: DET 71.1% 4.3-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ SEA

Model: SEA 50.2% Line: SEA 54.4% 4.2-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ HOU

Model: HOU 84.1% Line: HOU 85.9% 1.8-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ DEN

Model: DEN 60.3% Line: DEN 60.2% 0.1-pt gap vs. the line