Value Picks — Week 16

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

MIN @ NYG Disagrees with the line

Model: NYG 68.0% Line: MIN 57.3% 25.3-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ CAR Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 53.0% Line: TB 58.8% 11.8-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ BAL Disagrees with the line

Model: NE 50.4% Line: BAL 60.2% 10.6-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ NO

Model: NO 58.2% Line: NO 68.5% 10.3-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ IND

Model: SF 53.4% Line: SF 63.1% 9.7-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ DET

Model: DET 62.9% Line: DET 71.1% 8.2-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ CHI Disagrees with the line

Model: GB 50.8% Line: CHI 54.4% 5.2-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ ARI

Model: ATL 52.3% Line: ATL 57.3% 5.0-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ DEN

Model: DEN 56.7% Line: DEN 60.2% 3.5-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ TEN

Model: KC 62.7% Line: KC 60.2% 2.5-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ DAL

Model: DAL 56.8% Line: DAL 54.4% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ WAS

Model: PHI 67.9% Line: PHI 69.8% 1.9-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ SEA

Model: SEA 52.7% Line: SEA 54.4% 1.7-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ HOU

Model: HOU 84.2% Line: HOU 85.9% 1.7-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ MIA

Model: CIN 60.7% Line: CIN 60.2% 0.5-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ CLE

Model: BUF 78.5% Line: BUF 78.2% 0.3-pt gap vs. the line