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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

5-10 HC Zac Taylor
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

6-9 HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN
60.7%
MIA
39.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Quinn Ewers (MIA): -0.304 EPA/dropback in prior starts (MIA starting Quinn Ewers in place of Tua Tagovailoa)
  • MIA offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.188 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22 15–29
–
MIA 20 13–27
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

CIN

Noah Fant TE Out Ankle
Joseph Ossai DE Out Ankle
Charlie Jones WR Out Ankle
B.J. Hill DT Questionable Ankle
Tee Higgins WR Questionable Concussion
DJ Turner II CB Questionable Illness
PJ Jules S Questionable Ankle

MIA

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Calf
Jason Sanders K Out Hip
Andrew Meyer C Out Triceps
Elijah Campbell S Questionable Ankle
Jordyn Brooks LB Questionable Foot
Isaiah Johnson CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 45
–
MIA 21

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:02 TD CIN (4:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 02:35 TD MIA (2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 06:06 FG CIN (6:06) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 10 – MIA 7
  • Q2 02:30 TD MIA (2:30) 6-M.Washington right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – MIA 13
  • Q2 01:28 TD CIN (1:28) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – MIA 14
  • Q3 09:49 TD CIN (9:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – MIA 14
  • Q3 08:37 TD CIN (8:37) 30-C.Brown right guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 30 – MIA 14
  • Q3 02:30 TD CIN (2:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 37 – MIA 14
  • Q4 13:37 TD CIN (13:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 44 – MIA 14
  • Q4 03:47 TD MIA (3:47) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 5-J.Wright right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 45 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:18) 8-R.Rehkow punts 54 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 24%

    (8:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CIN 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-K.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (15:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 50 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:50) 16-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

    (6:06) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to CIN 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-82-D.Eskridge.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 87%

    (11:12) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to MIA 24 for 1 yard (25-T.Dodson; 44-C.Robinson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 38%

    (5:34) 14-Q.Ewers up the middle to CIN 47 for no gain (95-H.Cross). (Virtual Measurement).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:34) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CIN 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-K.Williams to CIN 46 for 26 yards (31-O.Gordon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 36%

    (9:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to MIA 3, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-82-M.Tinsley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 59 yards to MIA 4, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-42-O.Burks. ** Injury Update: CIN-43-J.Giles-Harris has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left tackle to MIA 48 for 3 yards (95-H.Cross; 43-J.Giles-Harris).

    See the full breakdown →