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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to MIA 24 for 1 yard (25-T.Dodson; 44-C.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.33 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model