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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.78 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model