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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 45 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to MIA 3, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-82-M.Tinsley.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.83 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP