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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to CIN 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-82-D.Eskridge.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.01 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model