Value Picks — Week 3

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

LV @ WAS

Model: WAS 70.5% Line: WAS 57.3% 13.2-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ NE Disagrees with the line

Model: NE 57.8% Line: PIT 54.4% 12.2-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ MIN Disagrees with the line

Model: CIN 52.3% Line: MIN 58.8% 11.1-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ CAR

Model: ATL 54.8% Line: ATL 65.8% 11.0-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ NYG

Model: KC 57.9% Line: KC 67.2% 9.3-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ BUF

Model: BUF 73.9% Line: BUF 82.3% 8.4-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ SF Disagrees with the line

Model: ARI 53.9% Line: SF 54.4% 8.3-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ JAX

Model: JAX 61.8% Line: JAX 54.4% 7.4-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ TB

Model: TB 75.4% Line: TB 68.5% 6.9-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ PHI

Model: PHI 66.9% Line: PHI 60.2% 6.7-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ BAL

Model: BAL 57.0% Line: BAL 63.1% 6.1-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ CLE

Model: GB 70.4% Line: GB 73.6% 3.2-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ CHI

Model: DAL 51.7% Line: DAL 54.4% 2.7-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ TEN

Model: IND 68.9% Line: IND 67.2% 1.7-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ SEA

Model: SEA 72.1% Line: SEA 71.1% 1.0-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ LAC

Model: LAC 57.3% Line: LAC 57.3% 0.0-pt gap vs. the line