Value Picks — Week 3

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

KC @ NYG

Model: KC 50.4% Line: KC 67.2% 16.8-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ NE Disagrees with the line

Model: NE 60.3% Line: PIT 54.4% 14.7-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ JAX

Model: JAX 67.3% Line: JAX 54.4% 12.9-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ CAR

Model: ATL 53.2% Line: ATL 65.8% 12.6-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ MIN Disagrees with the line

Model: CIN 53.7% Line: MIN 58.8% 12.5-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ BUF

Model: BUF 71.4% Line: BUF 82.3% 10.9-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ SF Disagrees with the line

Model: ARI 55.5% Line: SF 54.4% 9.9-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ TB

Model: TB 77.9% Line: TB 68.5% 9.4-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ PHI

Model: PHI 67.8% Line: PHI 60.2% 7.6-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ WAS

Model: WAS 64.4% Line: WAS 57.3% 7.1-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ CHI

Model: DAL 57.8% Line: DAL 54.4% 3.4-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ SEA

Model: SEA 74.4% Line: SEA 71.1% 3.3-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ CLE

Model: GB 70.8% Line: GB 73.6% 2.8-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ LAC

Model: LAC 55.5% Line: LAC 57.3% 1.8-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ TEN

Model: IND 66.0% Line: IND 67.2% 1.2-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ BAL

Model: BAL 62.7% Line: BAL 63.1% 0.4-pt gap vs. the line