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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 16:25 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

DAL
57.8%
CHI
42.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Caleb Williams (CHI): -0.081 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 25
–
CHI 21
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DAL

DaRon Bland CB Out Foot

CHI

T.J. Edwards LB Out Hamstring
Jaylon Johnson CB Out Groin
Jaylon Jones CB Out Hamstring
Kyler Gordon CB Out Hamstring
Kiran Amegadjie G Out Elbow
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Quadricep
D'Marco Jackson LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 14
–
CHI 31

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:40 TD CHI (10:40) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – CHI 6
  • Q1 04:26 FG DAL (4:26) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – CHI 7
  • Q1 04:21 TD CHI (4:21) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – CHI 13
  • Q2 13:53 FG DAL (13:53) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 6 – CHI 14
  • Q2 08:01 TD DAL (8:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – CHI 14
  • Q2 04:19 FG CHI (4:19) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. DAL 14 – CHI 17
  • Q2 00:30 TD CHI (:30) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – CHI 23
  • Q3 00:14 TD CHI (:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – CHI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:26) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to DAL 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 43 for 9 yards (23-R.Johnson).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 73%

    (4:26) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (13:53) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to DAL 14, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 33 for 19 yards (85-C.Kmet; 43-C.Jones). PENALTY on CHI-23-R.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 33.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (4:19) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:36) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to CHI 10, Center-44-T.Sieg. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 29 for 19 yards (18-D.Clark).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 15 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:12) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CHI 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 12-D.Duvernay ran ob at CHI 24 for 12 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 49%

    (9:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to DAL 8, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert to DAL 22 for 6 yards (44-N.Sewell).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at DAL 37 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (4:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 1-J.Tolbert INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds at CHI -2. Touchback.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:28) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to DAL 32, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.