Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 64

Chicago Bears 14 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to DAL 14, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 33 for 19 yards (85-C.Kmet; 43-C.Jones). PENALTY on CHI-23-R.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.67 EP
65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model