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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 1

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(4:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 1-J.Tolbert INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds at CHI -2. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +4.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 1, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model