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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 11

Chicago Bears 14 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model