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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 44

Chicago Bears 31 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to DAL 8, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP