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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(6:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at DAL 37 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.51 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model