LA @ PHI — 4th & Data

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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay

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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni

Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

32.2%

PHI

67.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PHI offense: +0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
PHI defense: -0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
LA offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
LA defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.142 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.150 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LA 21

–

PHI 26

Projected margin: PHI by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

LA

Steve Avila G Doubtful Ankle

Colby Parkinson TE Questionable Shoulder

Braden Fiske DE Questionable Oblique

PHI

Will Shipley RB Out Oblique

Tanner McKee QB Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 26

–

PHI 33

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:12 TD PHI (8:12) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – PHI 6
Q1 04:05 FG LA (4:05) 16-J.Karty 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – PHI 7
Q1 01:28 TD LA (1:28) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – PHI 7
Q2 09:18 FG LA (9:18) 16-J.Karty 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 13 – PHI 7
Q2 03:46 FG LA (3:46) 16-J.Karty 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 16 – PHI 7
Q2 00:14 FG LA (:14) 16-J.Karty 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 19 – PHI 7
Q3 14:12 TD LA (14:12) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 25 – PHI 7
Q3 11:43 TD PHI (11:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 88-D.Goedert for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – PHI 13
Q3 02:19 TD PHI (2:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – PHI 20
Q4 01:51 TD PHI (1:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – PHI 27
Q4 00:03 TD PHI (:03) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-J.Davis), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, RECOVERED by PHI-90-J.Davis at PHI 39. 90-J.Davis for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – PHI 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 30

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 59% p(FG) 78%

(11:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end ran ob at LA 12 for 18 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 3

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

(9:08) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to LA 2 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman; 8-J.Verse).
Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 72%

(4:05) 16-J.Karty 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q1 PHI 4th & 15 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(2:29) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to LA 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to LA 46 for 20 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q2 PHI 4th & 18 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(15:00) 10-B.Mann punts 64 yards to LA 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for 9 yards (81-G.Calcaterra). Penalty on LA-2-J.McCollough, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at LA 34. Penalty on PHI-21-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

(9:18) 16-J.Karty 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(7:55) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 31, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to LA 46 for 15 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 15

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

(3:46) 16-J.Karty 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(2:00) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to LA 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to PHI 48 for 9 yards (39-M.Epps).
Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 82%

(:14) 16-J.Karty 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 49

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP

p(convert) 59% p(FG) 32%

(8:50) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to PHI 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 11

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

(3:47) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to LA 10 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman; 37-Q.Lake).
Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 46

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 39%

(14:13) 23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 47 for -1 yards (90-J.Davis, 98-J.Carter).
Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 50

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%

(12:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown (26-K.Kinchens).
Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 18

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 93%

(8:46) 16-J.Karty 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-J.Carter), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, recovered by LA-16-J.Karty at PHI 24. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Taunting, 9 yards, enforced between downs. Incomplete Pass by 16-J.Karty after Blocked Kick Recovery.
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

(1:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.