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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 31, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to LA 46 for 15 yards (54-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.95 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 88, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model