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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to PHI 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.95 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP