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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 33

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 16-J.Karty 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model