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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end ran ob at LA 12 for 18 yards (3-K.Curl).

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.51 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model