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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to LA 2 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman; 8-J.Verse).

The Three Options

GO +4.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.45 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model