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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 16-J.Karty 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.86 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP