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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to LA 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to LA 46 for 20 yards (54-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model