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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 10

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 16-J.Karty 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.29 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model