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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 16-J.Karty 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-J.Carter), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, recovered by LA-16-J.Karty at PHI 24. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Taunting, 9 yards, enforced between downs. Incomplete Pass by 16-J.Karty after Blocked Kick Recovery.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.61 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 18, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP