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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(12:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown (26-K.Kinchens).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.57 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP