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New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYJ
22.1%
TB
77.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.183 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.231 vs Tyrod Taylor (NYJ) -0.033 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Tyrod Taylor in place of Justin Fields)
  • NYJ defense: +0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20
–
TB 30
Projected margin: TB by 10 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NYJ

Josh Reynolds WR Out Hamstring
Kene Nwangwu RB Out Hamstring
Jay Tufele DT Out Illness
Justin Fields QB Out Concussion
Jermaine Johnson II DE Out Ankle
Michael Carter II CB Questionable Shoulder
Tony Adams S Questionable Hip
Marcelino McCrary-Ball LB Questionable Hamstring

TB

Chris Godwin Jr. WR Out Ankle
Tristan Wirfs T Out Knee
Emeka Egbuka WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 27
–
TB 29

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:55 FG NYJ (8:55) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 3 – TB 0
  • Q1 02:26 FG TB (2:26) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYJ 3 – TB 3
  • Q2 14:04 FG NYJ (14:04) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 6 – TB 3
  • Q2 11:18 TD TB (11:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – TB 9
  • Q2 01:47 FG TB (1:47) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYJ 6 – TB 13
  • Q2 00:28 TD TB (:28) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 45. 35-J.Dean for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – TB 19
  • Q3 05:54 FG TB (5:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYJ 6 – TB 23
  • Q4 10:16 TD NYJ (10:16) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – TB 23
  • Q4 06:18 FG TB (6:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on NYJ-9-W.McDonald, Running Into the Kicker, declined. NYJ 13 – TB 26
  • Q4 03:46 TD NYJ (3:46) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 10-A.Lazard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 19 – TB 26
  • Q4 02:00 TD NYJ (2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 26 – TB 26
  • Q4 00:03 FG TB (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYJ 27 – TB 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%

    (8:55) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 20 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 70%

    (2:26) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (14:04) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (9:13) 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 43 for -1 yards (5-H.Reddick).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 42%

    (7:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to NYJ 18, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (5:50) 14-A.McNamara punts 46 yards to TB 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-K.Johnson to TB 30 for no gain (82-A.Smith).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to NYJ 38, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (1:47) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:31) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to TB 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-K.Johnson to TB 23 for -1 yards (37-Q.Stiggers).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to NYJ 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (5:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (:35) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 10-A.Lazard to TB 38 for 9 yards (23-T.Smith; 25-J.Parrish).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 66%

    (6:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on NYJ-9-W.McDonald, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 10-A.Lazard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 87%

    (2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.