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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to NYJ 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.83 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model