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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 4

New York Jets 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

What Actually Happened

(3:46) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 10-A.Lazard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model