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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model