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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to NYJ 38, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.02 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model