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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 76

New York Jets 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 14-A.McNamara punts 46 yards to TB 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-K.Johnson to TB 30 for no gain (82-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.98 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model